(Past illustrations) Deriving determinants of bid prices

(This past illustration describes something that I performed in my career, either for a Bredemarket client, for an employer, or as a volunteer. The entity for which I performed the work, or proposed to perform the work, is not listed for confidentiality reasons.)

PROBLEM

For a particular product line, a company wanted to know which variables could be used to predict how a particular bid would be priced.

By Bernard Gagnon – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18185578

SOLUTION

Using data from FOIA requests, I identified and collected variables that were perceived to have an effect on bid price. In addition to the final price for each bid, I also collected relevant technical requirements from the bid, customer characteristics, bid evaluation scores where available, and other data.

After I collected the data, my colleague analyzed the data statistically, both to try to derive equations that fit the data, and also to illustrate the data in graphical form.

RESULTS

For this particular product line, the data did not closely correlate to any particular equation that could be used to predict bid price. (A separate analysis of a different product line yielded better correlation results.)

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